Highlights

• • Market implies ~84.7% for Kravchenko (1.181) which we judge optimistic
• • Required fair odds to back Kravchenko profitably: ≥1.282

Pros

• + Kravchenko has more match experience and a superior career win rate
• + Both players are comfortable on clay, reducing stylistic surprises

Cons

• - Both players arrive with recent losses, lowering confidence in any pick
• - Current bookmaker price is too short to offer positive expected value

Details

We see the market strongly favors Georgii Kravchenko at 1.181 (implied ~84.7%), but our assessment based on career records, surface experience and level of events suggests his true win probability is lower. Kravchenko has more matches and a better record than Filippo Mazzola (20-23 vs 5-15), and both have clay/hard experience, which supports Kravchenko as favorite. However, the implied probability from 1.181 is substantially higher than a realistic estimate once we account for small sample sizes, recent form (both players showing recent losses), and that Mazzola has been competing at M15 level while Kravchenko has mixed results at higher levels — meaning the market may be compressing price too tightly. At our estimated true probability (0.78) the current price of 1.181 yields negative expected value (EV = -0.079 per unit), so we do not recommend backing the favorite at available odds. To get positive EV on Kravchenko given our probability, bookmakers would need to offer at least 1.282.

Key factors

• • Kravchenko has larger match sample and better overall record (20-23 vs 5-15)
• • Both players have clay experience; surface does not strongly favor the underdog
• • Recent form: both entering with recent losses, reducing certainty
• • Market price (1.181) implies an outsized ~84.7% win chance not supported by available form/record