Georgii Kravchenko vs Fabrizio Andaloro
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market odds on Andaloro (1.196) overstate his chance versus Kravchenko relative to our 78% estimate, producing negative EV — no value at current prices.
Highlights
- • Andaloro clearly stronger on career numbers, but 1.196 is too short versus our probability
- • Minimum fair odds for positive EV are ~1.282; current market is shorter
Pros
- + Andaloro is the clear favorite by career results and should win most matchups
- + Both players have recent activity so no obvious rust factor in the research
Cons
- - Market converts Andaloro to an ~83.6% chance which we view as an overestimate
- - Limited head-to-head and context data in the research increases uncertainty on matchup-specific edges
Details
We compare the market price (Away Fabrizio Andaloro 1.196 => implied 83.6%) to our estimate of Andaloro's win chance. Research shows Andaloro has a substantially stronger career record (40-22, ~64.5% win rate) than Kravchenko (20-23, ~46.5%), and both players have experience on clay and hard courts. Translating those career differentials into a match probability we estimate Andaloro's true win probability at 78.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.282, which is longer than the current 1.196 market quote; using the market price produces a negative ROI (EV = 0.78 * 1.196 - 1 ≈ -0.067). Because expected_value is not positive at the current odds, we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Career win-rate gap: Andaloro 40-22 (~64.5%) vs Kravchenko 20-23 (~46.5%)
- • Both players have match experience on clay and hard surfaces; no surface mismatch from research
- • Market heavily favors Andaloro (implied ~83.6%) which exceeds our conservative model probability