Giammarco Gandolfi vs Aidan Mchugh
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — Mchugh is the clear favorite but the 1.05 price is too short relative to our ~92% estimate, producing negative EV.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Mchugh: ~95.2% (1.05 decimal)
- • Our estimated true probability for Mchugh: 92.0% → required fair odds ≈ 1.087
Pros
- + Mchugh's much larger match sample and winning record strongly favor him
- + If surface is hard/fast he becomes an even stronger favorite
Cons
- - Gandolfi has clay match experience and the match location (Pozzuoli) likely being clay introduces upset potential
- - Current market price for Mchugh (1.05) offers no cushion for variance or unknowns
Details
We view Aidan Mchugh as the clear favorite given his far greater match experience (52 matches, 32-20) versus Giammarco Gandolfi's extremely limited sample (2 matches). The market price for Mchugh (1.05 decimal, implied ~95.2%) is exceptionally short. After accounting for a modest adjustment for surface uncertainty (Pozzuoli likely clay, which may slightly favor Gandolfi who has clay matches), we estimate Mchugh's true win probability at ~92.0% (0.92). That implies fair odds of about 1.087. At the quoted 1.05, the expected value is negative (EV = 0.92 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.034, about -3.4% ROI). Gandolfi's available price (8.0 decimal) would require an estimated win probability of at least 12.5% to break even; we estimate his true chance is closer to ~8% given his lack of experience and limited results, so that side is negative EV as well. Because neither side offers positive expected value at current prices, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Large experience gap: Mchugh 52 matches vs Gandolfi 2 matches
- • Surface uncertainty: Pozzuoli likely clay slightly favors Gandolfi but not enough to offset experience gap
- • Market is extremely short on Mchugh (1.05), leaving no value after our probability adjustment