Highlights

• • Book price implies ~73% win chance vs our ~55% estimate
• • Data is sparse (2 matches) and opponent details are unavailable — high uncertainty

Pros

• + Available match data is on the same surface (clay), so sample is directly relevant
• + Gandolfi has a recent win on clay, showing some capability on the surface

Cons

• - Sample size is tiny (2 matches), producing low confidence in any probability estimate
• - No information on Daniel Amarandei or H2H to adjust probability — directional bias is uncertain

Details

The market price (home 1.37) implies a win probability of ~72.99%. Using only the provided player data, Giammarco Gandolfi has an extremely limited record (2 matches, 1-1) both on clay with mixed serve stats; there is no information about the opponent. Given the small sample, lack of opponent/H2H data and variable match-level stats, we estimate Gandolfi's true win probability around 55%. At that estimate the favorite price (1.37) is overpriced by the book and offers negative expected value (EV = 0.55*1.37 - 1 ≈ -0.247). Because expected value is negative at current market odds and uncertainty is high, we do not recommend taking the favorite here.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability at 1.37 is ~72.99%, well above our 55% estimate
• • Extremely small and recent sample for Gandolfi (2 matches, 1-1) limits confidence
• • All available matches played on clay (surface alignment is neutral-positive) but opponent info is missing