Highlights

• • Market odds (1.73) undervalue Tanner relative to our 62% estimate
• • Edge is modest due to small-sample uncertainty

Pros

• + Better recent clay performance and greater match exposure this season
• + Current odds provide a positive expected value per our probability estimate

Cons

• - Very limited data and small sample sizes increase variance and model risk
• - No detailed injury or H2H information available to further support the pick

Details

We view Gian Luca Tanner as the value side. Current market odds of 1.73 imply ~57.8% chance; after assessing available form and surface data we estimate Tanner's true win probability around 62%. Tanner has a marginally better recent record on clay (3-4 vs 1-4), more match exposure this season on clay, and both players show limited results — but the balance favors Tanner on this surface. The market margin leaves room for positive expected value: at 1.73 decimal the stake yields a positive ROI versus our probability estimate. Main uncertainty is the very small sample sizes and limited match detail, so the edge is modest but present at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Surface: both players have recent clay matches; Tanner's results on clay are slightly better
• • Recent form: Tanner 3-4 this season vs Cherubino 1-4, indicating a form edge for Tanner
• • Sample size and uncertainty: both players have very few matches this season, increasing variance and model uncertainty