Giles Hussey vs Guillaume Dalmasso

Highlights

• • Away (Dalmasso) has clay experience; home does not according to profiles
• • Current away odds (5.5) imply ~18% — we estimate ~28%, creating strong positive EV

Pros

• + Clear surface-driven edge that market appears to have overlooked
• + Large decimal price (5.5) relative to our conservative probability produces substantial ROI

Cons

• - Player profiles and recent-match details are limited and sample sizes small, increasing uncertainty
• - No head-to-head or tournament-specific fitness details provided; unknown last-minute variables could alter outcome

Details

We see a large market mispricing: the home moneyline of 1.123 implies an ~89.0% chance, which is not supported by the player profiles and surface information. Giles Hussey's documented matches are on grass/hard with no clay history in the provided record, while Guillaume Dalmasso explicitly lists clay among his surfaces. Both players have comparable overall win-loss records, but clay specialists reliably outperform non-clay players on clay; that shifts the probabilities materially toward Dalmasso in this matchup. The current away price (5.5, implied ~18.2%) appears generous. We estimate Dalmasso's true win probability at 28%, which yields a required fair decimal price of ~3.571; the available 5.5 therefore represents positive expected value. We note uncertainty from limited direct-form detail and small-sample profiles, so our estimate remains conservative but still shows a clear edge at current odds.

Key factors

• • Surface: clay favors Dalmasso (has clay experience) while Hussey's listed surfaces exclude clay
• • Market skew: bookmakers heavily favor Hussey (1.123) despite surface disadvantage
• • Comparable overall records but surface specialization likely shifts true probability toward Dalmasso