Giles Hussey vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Joao Loureiro at 7.26 given his clay experience and the market's extreme favoritism toward Hussey; a conservative 15% win estimate yields +8.9% EV.
Highlights
- • Away price 7.26 implies ~13.8% chance; we estimate ~15%
- • Positive EV at current price (EV ≈ +0.089 per unit)
Pros
- + Loureiro profile includes clay experience which narrows the quality gap
- + Large market favoritism on Hussey inflates the underdog payout
Cons
- - Hussey has a superior overall record and more match play (30-21 vs 11-14)
- - Small-sample and profile limitations in the provided data increase uncertainty
Details
The market prices Giles Hussey at 1.076 (implied ~92.96%) and Joao Loureiro at 7.26 (implied ~13.77%). We estimate Loureiro's true win probability is materially higher than the market-implied 13.8% because Loureiro has documented clay experience while Hussey's recorded surfaces are grass and hard with no clay history in the provided profile. Hussey has the stronger overall record (30-21 vs 11-14) and is the favorite on merit, but the extreme market price for Hussey leaves little room for variance and likely overstates his clay advantage. Using a conservative true probability for Loureiro of 15.0% and the quoted away price of 7.26 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.15*7.26 - 1 = +0.089 per unit). We therefore recommend the away side only because it shows value at the current price; the home price would require an implausibly high true-win probability (>92.96%) to be profitable.
Key factors
- • Surface profile: Loureiro has clay experience; Hussey's recorded surfaces are grass/hard with no clay on file
- • Disparity in overall records (Hussey stronger overall) balanced by surface suitability for Loureiro
- • Market is extremely short on Hussey (1.076), creating value on the underdog if true probability >13.8%