Giles Hussey vs Enrique Collar
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No bet — the favorite is over-priced relative to the limited clay evidence and uncertainty about the opponent, and neither side shows clear positive EV at current prices.
Highlights
- • Hussey is heavily favored at 1.05 but has no documented clay track record
- • Fair price based on our assessment is ~1.22; market 1.05 generates negative EV
Pros
- + Strong overall career win rate (30-21) which supports favoritism
- + Heavy market favoritism suggests match should be quick if form holds
Cons
- - No clay experience recorded — surface mismatch risk
- - Recent mixed results and limited season span increase outcome uncertainty
Details
We estimate Giles Hussey is the heavy favorite on paper, but available evidence shows he has limited or no recorded clay experience (career matches listed on grass and hard) and mixed recent form. The market price of 1.05 implies ~95.2% probability, which would require near-certainty about a win that the profile does not support. Using a cautious, evidence-based assessment we assign Hussey a true win probability of 82% given the data (strong overall record but uncertainty on clay, no info on the opponent). At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.22. Betting the favorite at 1.05 produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.82*1.05 - 1 = -0.139), so there is no value on the favorite. The away price (9.5) implies ~10.5% probability; we lack any data on Enrique Collar to justify a materially higher probability than that, so the underdog looks unsupported as a value play as well. Therefore we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Surface is outdoor clay but Hussey's recorded matches are on grass and hard — lack of clay evidence increases uncertainty
- • Market price (1.05) implies ~95% win probability which is not supported by the available player profile and recent form
- • No information provided on Enrique Collar or H2H, making underdog pricing difficult to justify as value