Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.481) = ~67.5% vs our estimate 63%
• • Neither side produces positive EV under conservative assumptions

Pros

• + Market prices are clear and widely available — easy to verify
• + Conservative estimate avoids overbetting on thin information

Cons

• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty around the probability estimate
• - Small margins — even slight adjustments in true probability could change the EV decision

Details

We conservatively estimate the home player (Giorgia Pedone) has a 63.0% chance to win this match based on the favorite status and lack of specific form/injury/H2H data. The market price (home 1.481) implies roughly a 67.5% win probability, which is higher than our estimate, so the favorite is overpriced versus our model and offers negative expected value. Conversely, the away price (2.66) would imply a ~37.5% chance; using the complementary probability (37.0%) the away side also yields a small negative EV. Given limited information and a conservative approach, neither side provides positive expected value at current prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (home 1.481) is ~67.5%, above our conservative true estimate of 63%
• • No match-specific data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) returned — we use conservative assumptions
• • Away price (2.66) does not offer enough compensation given our estimated away probability (~37%)