Highlights

• • Home favorite implied probability (77%) looks overstated relative to available performance data
• • Away at 3.27 produces positive expected value under a conservative 35% true win estimate

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge vs market implied probability
• + Upside is significant relative to stake (≈14.5% ROI per unit at our estimate)

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes and poor form for both players increase variance
• - Unseen factors (fitness, draw/seedings, live conditions) could materially change true probabilities

Details

The market heavily favors the home player (1.299 => implied ~77%), which is inconsistent with the raw performance data we have. Tabacco's career record (8-15, ~34.8% win rate across 23 matches) and Sabaliauskas's small sample (1-3, 25% across 4 matches) suggest both players have limited, weak form on record; Tabacco's greater experience and home status justify a higher chance than Sabaliauskas, but not the market's 77% implied probability. Adjusting for experience/home edge we estimate Tabacco ~65% and Sabaliauskas ~35%. At Sabaliauskas 35% true probability, the current away decimal 3.27 gives positive expected value (EV = 0.35*3.27 - 1 = 0.1445). Therefore we identify value on the away moneyline — the market appears to overprice the home advantage. Key caveats: both players have very small/poor samples and high variance, so estimate uncertainty is significant.

Key factors

• • Market implies home win ~77% which contrasts with career win-rates in research
• • Tabacco more experienced (23 matches) but only ~34.8% career win rate
• • Sabaliauskas has tiny sample (4 matches) but a plausible ~35% upset probability given form