Highlights

• • Market odds slightly generous to Cadenasso relative to our model
• • Edge is modest; uncertainty due to grass surface inexperience

Pros

• + Clearer win-rate and recent-form advantage for Cadenasso
• + Current odds (1.704) exceed our fair-price threshold (1.667), producing positive EV

Cons

• - Both players lack substantive grass-court records, increasing match unpredictability
• - EV is small (≈2.2%); outcome variance is high in Challenger-level matches

Details

We compare the market price (Gianluca Cadenasso 1.704, implied 58.7%) to our estimated true win probability of 60%. Cadenasso shows a clearer career win-rate edge (26-15 vs Oradini 27-24) and stronger recent results in Challenger events, so we project a modest edge on grass despite both players having limited recorded experience on that surface. The market price slightly underestimates Cadenasso's chances: at p=0.60 the fair decimal price is 1.667, so the available 1.704 offers positive expected value. We remain cautious because neither player has substantial grass history and the sample sizes are limited, which caps upside and increases variance.

Key factors

• • Cadenasso has a higher career win percentage (26-15 vs 27-24)
• • Both players show limited/no recorded grass experience, increasing uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability (58.7%) is slightly below our 60% fair estimate