Giulia Bajsic Leo vs Beatrice Stagno
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The supplied data points to significant mispricing: Stagno's documented career record and recent form do not justify a 1.1 price, so we find value backing the underdog Giulia Bajsic Leo at 6.5.
Highlights
- • Stagno's career win rate ~32.3% vs market-implied ~90.9% — large discrepancy
- • At our estimated true probability (67.7% for the home), current odds 6.5 produce a very large positive EV
Pros
- + Strong numerical value: current odds far exceed the minimum required (6.5 > 1.477)
- + Assessment based on concrete career and recent-form numbers supplied in research
Cons
- - Very limited data on Giulia Bajsic Leo in the provided research increases uncertainty
- - Market may be pricing non-public factors (injury, walkover, lineup change) not present in the research
Details
We compare the market prices (Giulia Bajsic Leo 6.5, Beatrice Stagno 1.1) to the available performance data. The only concrete player data provided is Beatrice Stagno's career record (10–21, 31 matches) and a recent poor run of results; that equates to a career win rate of ~32.3%. The market's away price of 1.1 implies a ~90.9% chance for Stagno, which is not consistent with her documented form and career win rate. Absent any contrary information about Giulia Bajsic Leo, the sensible interpretation of the supplied data is that Stagno is far from a 90% shot and that the home player has a substantially higher chance than the market-implied 15.4%. Using Stagno's career win rate (0.323) as the best objective anchor from the research, we estimate Giulia's true win probability at 1 - 0.323 = 0.677. At current decimal odds of 6.5 for the home side this yields a large positive expected value (EV = 0.677 * 6.5 - 1 = 3.401). Given the extreme divergence between market odds and the documented form, we identify value on the home player while noting elevated model risk because of limited information about the opponent and possible off-book factors the market may be pricing.
Key factors
- • Beatrice Stagno career win rate is 10–21 (≈32.3%), indicating limited baseline winning probability
- • Recent results for Stagno show multiple straight losses, suggesting form is weak
- • Market odds (Stagno 1.1) imply ≈90.9% which is materially inconsistent with the provided performance data