Highlights

• • Bougouffa career record 10-21 and recent losses contradict a 1.01 market price.
• • At our 40% estimate, the home price 17.0 yields a large positive EV (≈+580%).

Pros

• + Huge market mispricing creates strong edge if our probability estimate is reasonable.
• + Bougouffa's documented poor form supports a much lower true probability than 99%.

Cons

• - We lack any direct research data on Giulia Caramelli; our probability must account for that uncertainty.
• - Extreme market odds can sometimes reflect late information or data entry errors not present in the provided research.

Details

We see a clear market mispricing: the away player Hanna Bougouffa is priced at 1.01 (implied ~99%) despite a documented career record of 10-21 (≈32% win rate) and multiple recent losses, which does not support near-certainty. There is no research-provided data on Giulia Caramelli to suggest she is a huge longshot; given Bougouffa's subpar form and overall win rate across clay/hard, we judge the market has severely over-weighted Bougouffa. Conservatively estimating Caramelli's true win probability at 40% produces substantial positive value versus the available home price of 17.0. The imbalance between implied probabilities (home 5.88% vs our 40%) and Bougouffa's documented form drives our recommendation to back the home player at current quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Away market price 1.01 implies near-certainty which conflicts with Bougouffa's 10-21 career record
• • Bougouffa's recent results in research show multiple losses and weak form
• • No research data provided on Caramelli increases uncertainty but does not justify the extreme market price