Highlights

• • Market-implied chance for Obradovic (~27% normalized) is well below our 48% estimate
• • Breakeven odds for our estimate are 2.083; current price 3.42 offers strong value

Pros

• + Obradovic's extensive experience and overall positive record
• + Significant disconnect between market odds and career/form metrics in the research

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses in the provided recent-match snippets
• - Popa’s home/young-upside factors could make her more dangerous than raw career numbers indicate

Details

We see a strong market lean to the home (Giulia Safina Popa) at 1.287 (implied ~77.7%), but the underlying data in the research does not support that heavy favoritism. Popa has a small sample (31 matches) and a 10-21 career record (~32% win rate) with limited high-level results. Andrea Obradovic has a very large sample (1066 matches) and a positive career record (559-507, ~52% win rate) and experience across all surfaces including clay. Both players show recent losses, but Obradovic's experience and historical win rate indicate a substantially higher true chance than the market's implied ~29% (raw) / ~27% (normalized). We estimate Obradovic's true win probability at 48%; at the current away moneyline of 3.42 this yields EV = 0.48 * 3.42 - 1 = 0.642 (64.2% return on a 1-unit stake). The breakeven decimal odds for our estimate are 1 / 0.48 = 2.083, well below the available 3.42, indicating clear value on the away side given the provided research.

Key factors

• • Home (Popa) has a small sample size (31 matches) and weak career record (10-21)
• • Obradovic has large experience (1066 matches) and a positive career win-loss (559-507)
• • Market prices strongly favor Popa but research data suggests Obradovic is substantially underrated