Highlights

• • Market implies ~88.4% for Desai; our read is ~62%
• • Given available data, neither player presents a defensible positive-EV opportunity at current odds

Pros

• + Clear market signal if outside information (not provided) justifies Desai as a dominant favorite
• + Long-shot price on Bestetti would be attractive if corroborating performance or matchup data emerged

Cons

• - Provided research shows matching poor records and recent losses for both players
• - No H2H, injury, or surface advantage data to justify a large deviation from equal expectation

Details

The market heavily favors Zeel Desai at 1.132 (implied ~88.4%), but the available player data does not support such an extreme disparity. Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form with multiple losses; both have played on Clay and Hard without a clear surface edge. With no head-to-head, injury, or performance evidence in the provided research to justify a near-90% win probability for Desai, we assign a more conservative true win probability to Desai (62%). At that probability the fair decimal odds would be ~1.613, substantially above the market 1.132, producing a negative expected value at current prices. The long-shot price on Bestetti (5.05) would only be attractive if we could justify a win probability above ~19.8%; given the supplied data (matching records and poor recent form for both) we cannot credibly assign Bestetti a >20% chance with confidence. Therefore no side shows clear positive EV based on the provided information.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results
• • No evidence in the provided research of injuries, clear surface advantage, or H2H edge
• • Market price heavily favors the away player far beyond what supplied data supports