Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi vs Beatriz Haddad Maia / Laura Siegemund

Highlights

• • Market heavily favors away (1.417) despite similar player records
• • Current home price (2.81) exceeds our fair threshold (2.381) and offers positive EV

Pros

• + Clear numeric edge: current odds > min required odds for our probability
• + Research shows parity between teams, supporting a higher true probability for the underdog

Cons

• - Data lacks doubles-specific form, pair chemistry, and direct H2H which increases uncertainty
• - Small-sample records and tournament-level variability can produce high variance in outcomes

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to the data available: the market prices the away pair at 1.417 (implied ~70.6%) and the home pair at 2.81 (implied ~35.6%). The provided player profiles show nearly identical recent records, surfaces played, and no injury notes for any of the four players, implying the matchup is much closer than the market suggests. Given this parity we conservatively estimate the true win probability for Giuliana Olmos / Aldila Sutjiadi at 42% (away therefore 58%). At the current home price of 2.81 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.42 * 2.81 - 1 = +0.180). The minimum fair decimal odds for that 42% probability is 2.381, so the current quote of 2.81 contains a substantial margin of value versus our estimate. Primary uncertainties are the lack of doubles-specific form/H2H and small-sample variance, but on the supplied evidence the underdog home price is mispriced and offers positive EV.

Key factors

• • Market implies away ~70.6% which conflicts with near-identical recent records in provided profiles
• • Player profiles show similar win-loss and surface distribution, suggesting parity
• • No injury or availability concerns listed for either team in the supplied research