Highlights

• • Market underestimates Manzano relative to his career form and sample size.
• • Positive EV at current widely-available prices: ~0.10 per unit staked.

Pros

• + Clear advantage in experience and overall win rate.
• + Neutral surface matchup reduces situational uncertainty.

Cons

• - Perego's small sample makes outcomes volatile; upset risk is meaningful.
• - Limited recent head-to-head or injury detail increases model uncertainty.

Details

We find value on the away player, Juan Cruz Martin Manzano. The market implies ~54.6% win probability at 1.833, while our modelled view — based on a much larger sample (21-16 career record vs Perego's 2-6), more consistent form on clay, and greater match experience at this level — gives Manzano ~60% chance. That gap (60% true vs 54.6% implied) produces positive expected value: EV = 0.60 * 1.833 - 1 ≈ 0.10. We also note both players have recent clay activity, so surface advantage is neutralized; the differentiator is consistency and depth of play, favouring Manzano. We remain conservative because Perego's small sample and limited data increase variance.

Key factors

• • Manzano has a much larger match sample and better win-loss record (21-16 vs 2-6).
• • Both players have recent clay matches, so surface is neutral; Manzano's consistency on clay is stronger.
• • Market-implied probability for Manzano (≈54.6%) is below our estimated true probability (60%), creating value.