Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Gill: 84.5%
• • Our estimated true probability for Gill: 78.0% → current price is overvalued

Pros

• + Gill has a stronger win-loss record and is the reasonable favorite on paper
• + No injury concerns in the provided data to unexpectedly alter the matchup

Cons

• - Market price for Gill (1.183) leaves no value versus our estimate
• - Limited sample sizes and sparse match detail create estimation uncertainty

Details

We estimate Felix Gill is the clear favorite but not as heavily as the market implies. The book price for Gill (1.183) implies ~84.5% win probability; after comparing career records, recent results and surface exposure from the available profiles we estimate Gill's true win probability at ~78.0%. That produces a negative ROI at the current price (EV = 0.78 * 1.183 - 1 = -0.077). Giuseppe La Vela has a reasonable record and recent clay results that keep this match closer than the market price suggests, and there are no injury flags in the provided research to justify the extreme market skew. Because expected value at the current favorite price is negative, we do not recommend wagering on either side.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Gill is ~84.5% (1.183) which appears overstated
• • Player records and recent form (Gill 24-11, La Vela 26-23) suggest a closer contest than the market price
• • Both players have match experience on clay; no injury information provided to justify heavy market skew