Giuseppe La Vela vs Fermin Tenti
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market overprices La Vela; we estimate his true win probability (~66%) is well below the implied ~78%, so no value exists on either side at current prices.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (78.3%) is higher than our realistic estimate (66%)
- • Underdog price looks tempting numerically but suffers from small-sample uncertainty
Pros
- + La Vela has more ATP/ITF match experience and a superior overall record
- + Both players are active on clay, so no surface surprise is expected
Cons
- - La Vela's market price requires an implausibly high true win probability (>78%) to be +EV
- - Tenti's small sample size and mixed form make an away selection unreliable despite the attractive decimal
Details
We view Giuseppe La Vela as the stronger player on paper: a larger match sample (49 matches) and a better win percentage than Fermin Tenti (26-23 vs 6-12). Both players have recent activity on clay, so surface does not materially flip the script. The market is pricing La Vela at 1.277 (implied ~78.3%), which requires a true win probability >78.3% to be +EV. Given La Vela's overall win rate (~53%) and the limited, mixed recent results for both players, a realistic true probability for La Vela is substantially below the market-implied level. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 66.0% for La Vela, the expected value at the current home price (1.277) is negative (EV = 0.66*1.277 - 1 = -0.157). We therefore do not find value on the favorite. The away price (3.42, implied ~29.2%) would require a true win probability ≥29.2% to be +EV; while Tenti's career win rate (33%) superficially meets that threshold, his very small sample, inferior experience, and uncertain form make that estimate unreliable. Consequently we decline to recommend a side at current market prices.
Key factors
- • Giuseppe La Vela has a larger match sample and higher career win rate (26-23 over 49 matches) versus Fermin Tenti (6-12 over 18 matches)
- • Both players have recent clay matches; surface does not materially advantage the underdog
- • Market price (1.277) implies a >78% chance for La Vela, which exceeds a realistic estimate of his true win probability