Giuseppe La Vela vs Kristijan Juhas
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing Kristijan Juhas at 1.806 — our model estimates his win chance at ~59% (fair odds ~1.695), producing a ~6.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Current market implies ~55.4% for Kristijan; we estimate ~59%
- • Clay specialization and superior win rate drive the edge
Pros
- + Price (1.806) is above our fair odds threshold (1.695)
- + Kristijan’s stronger win rate and clay focus align with match conditions
Cons
- - ITF-level results have higher variance and smaller sample sizes
- - Limited head-to-head and recent-match detail increases uncertainty
Details
We see value on Kristijan Juhas (away). The market prices him at 1.806 (implied ~55.4%), but our read of the available data gives him a materially higher chance. Kristijan has a stronger recent win rate (19-11, ~63% career) than Giuseppe La Vela (28-24, ~54%), and Kristijan appears to be a clay-focused player while this match is on clay at the M15 Kursumlijska Banja event — both factors that favor him. Both players recorded mixed results in the same event recently, but the cleaner clay specialization and superior win ratio for Kristijan lead us to estimate his true win probability at 59%. At that probability the required fair decimal price is ~1.695; the current 1.806 offers a positive expected value. There are no injury notes or other disqualifying issues in the provided research, but sample sizes at ITF level are limited and volatility is higher, so we remain moderately conservative in our probability estimate.
Key factors
- • Kristijan has a higher career win rate (19-11) than Giuseppe (28-24)
- • Match is on clay where Kristijan is listed as a clay specialist
- • Both players recently competed at the same event, but Kristijan’s clay record and form edge justify a higher true probability