Highlights

• • Home underdog offers positive EV vs market-implied probability
• • Alejandro's 1-8 record suggests the heavy market favoritism is overstated

Pros

• + Clear relative experience and higher win-rate for Glauco
• + Current odds (3.55) exceed our min required odds (2.778) for positive EV

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form; matches at this level are high-variance
• - Surface/conditions and H2H are unknown, increasing uncertainty

Details

We believe Glauco Pinheiro Da Cruz Junior is undervalued at 3.55. Alejandro Bancalari's record (1-8 in 9 matches) is markedly worse than Glauco's (10-21 in 31 matches), and although both show poor recent form, the larger sample and higher win-rate for Glauco indicate a clear relative edge. The market heavily favors Alejandro at 1.26 (implied ~79.4%), which we view as overstating Alejandro's chances given his limited wins and short match history. We estimate Glauco's true win probability at 36%; at decimal 3.55 the bet offers positive expected value (EV = 0.36*3.55 - 1 = 0.278). Key uncertainties that temper conviction are small-sample noise, unknown surface/conditions for this specific match, and general volatility in lower-tier events.

Key factors

• • Glauco has a larger sample size and higher career win-rate (10/31 vs 1/9)
• • Alejandro's 1-8 record indicates low baseline win probability despite short odds
• • Current market odds (Away 1.26) imply a far too-high probability for Alejandro given available form data