Highlights

• • Market implies ~98% for home; we conservatively estimate 97%.
• • At 1.02 the ROI is slightly negative (~-1.1%).

Pros

• + Extreme favorite reduces upset probability, so low variance outcome is likely.
• + If additional favorable info emerges (injury to away), the market could underreact and create value.

Cons

• - Current price (1.02) offers no profitable margin versus our conservative estimate.
• - Lack of research data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate.

Details

We reviewed the quoted prices (Home 1.02, Away 15.0) and, with no external data available, we apply conservative assumptions. The market-implied home win probability is very high (~98.0%), but given unknown form, surface and injuries, we conservatively estimate the true home-win probability at 97.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1/0.97 = 1.031, which is higher than the available 1.02 — producing a small negative expected value. The away price (15.0) implies ~6.67% chance; we judge the true away chance materially lower than that or, at minimum, not high enough to justify risking capital at 15.0 given the scarcity of information. Therefore there is no positive expected value on either side at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors the home player with a 1.02 quote (very low payout).
• • No match-specific research (form, surface, injuries, H2H) was available — we apply conservative assumptions.
• • Current home price (1.02) is below our conservative fair price (1.031), producing negative EV.