Gonzalo Bueno vs Jaime Faria
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small but clear value on Gonzalo Bueno at 2.23 versus our 48% win estimate — the odds exceed our break-even threshold, producing ~7% ROI.
Highlights
- • Book implied probability for Bueno (44.8%) is below our 48% estimate
- • Break-even odds (~2.083) are lower than the current 2.23 price
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current market price
- + Bueno has a slightly stronger overall win rate and larger match sample
Cons
- - Recent match form appears mixed for both players, increasing uncertainty
- - No head-to-head data available and profiles are limited, so the estimate has moderate uncertainty
Details
The market prices Jaime Faria as the favorite at 1.66 (implied win probability 60.2%) and Gonzalo Bueno as the underdog at 2.23 (implied 44.8%). Our assessment gives Bueno a higher true win probability (~48.0%) based on comparable career win rates (Bueno 39-34 = 53.4% vs Faria 30-27 = 52.6%), broader recent match sample for Bueno, and both players having experience on the likely surface (clay/hard). The bookmaker margin appears to overstate Faria’s advantage relative to the available performance metrics, creating value on Bueno at 2.23. At our probability, the break-even odds are ~2.083, so the current price of 2.23 yields positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Comparable career win rates; Bueno slightly higher sample win rate
- • Both players have experience on clay/hard surfaces listed in profiles
- • Market overpricing of Faria relative to basic performance metrics