Gonzalo Bueno vs Nuno Borges
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: we estimate Borges ~76% to win which yields a slight negative EV at 1.28, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market implies 78.1% for Borges; our estimate is 76.0%
- • EV for backing Borges at 1.28 is about -0.027 (negative)
Pros
- + Conservative estimate accounts for Bueno's positive overall record
- + Avoids betting into a thin edge when the market price offers no value
Cons
- - Limited data on Borges and match surface increases uncertainty
- - Bueno's recent losses reduce upside for a home upset
Details
We estimate Nuno Borges is the clear favorite but the market price (1.28, implied win probability 78.125%) slightly overstates his edge relative to our model. Using only the provided data, Gonzalo Bueno has a 39-34 career record (roughly 53% overall) but recent results included losses on clay; with no head-to-head or injury details for Borges and surface unspecified, we conservatively estimate Borges' true win probability at 76.0%. At that probability the expected value of backing Borges at 1.28 is negative (EV = 0.76*1.28 - 1 = -0.027), so there is no value on either side at the current prices (home implied probability 27.03% vs our rough estimate for Bueno substantially lower). Therefore we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors Nuno Borges at 1.28 (implied 78.1%)
- • Gonzalo Bueno career record 39-34 shows competence but not dominant form
- • Recent listed results for Bueno include losses on clay; surface and Borges details are not provided