Greet Minnen vs Mathilde Lollia
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find strong value on Mathilde Lollia at 12.82 given a conservative 45% win probability estimate; the price implies an outsized edge unless there are unseen reasons for the heavy favoritism.
Highlights
- • Identical-ish records and surface profiles make the market split implausible
- • At p=45% the away price produces a large positive EV (≈+4.77)
Pros
- + Huge positive EV at the quoted away price
- + No documented injury or form gap in the provided research to justify the market skew
Cons
- - Extreme market skew may reflect missing information (withdrawal, walkover, late injury) which would invalidate the value
- - Underdog outcomes are inherently higher variance despite positive EV
Details
We see two players with almost identical profiles: similar career records (≈10-21/22), the same surface experience (clay/hard), and no explicit injuries or H2H information in the research. The market price (Greet Minnen 1.067 / Mathilde Lollia 12.82) heavily favors Minnen in a way that is inconsistent with the available form data. Using a conservative estimate that Lollia's true win probability is 45%, the fair decimal price would be ~2.222. The quoted away price of 12.82 implies an implied probability of only 7.8% (1/12.82), so at our estimate there is substantial value: EV = 0.45 * 12.82 - 1 = 4.769 (a 476.9% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We therefore recommend backing the away player at the current market number, but note this is conditional on no unseen factors (injury, retirement, walkover) that would justify the extreme favorite price.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical win-loss records and surface experience
- • No injuries or other mitigating information provided in the research to justify extreme market pricing
- • Current market odds (12.82 for away) imply a very low probability that appears inconsistent with the available form data