Greet Minnen vs Polina Iatchenko
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market pricing (1.219) overstates Minnen's chance based on the provided season record (10-21); there is no value at current prices, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Minnen's supplied win rate (32.3%) implies a fair price near 3.10
- • Current favorite price of 1.219 produces a large negative EV versus the evidence
Pros
- + Clear, conservative estimate based on supplied match record
- + Avoids taking a bet where the market price is extreme versus available data
Cons
- - Research includes limited data (no opponent profile), increasing uncertainty
- - If unprovided context (injuries, head-to-head, recent tournament form) strongly favors Minnen, our conservative estimate could understate her true probability
Details
We compare the market price (Greet Minnen at 1.219, implied ~82.0%) to an evidence-based estimate derived from the only provided performance data. Minnen's record in the supplied span is 10-21 (10 wins in 31 matches, a 32.3% win rate), which is far lower than the market-implied win probability. With no usable data on Polina Iatchenko in the research, we conservatively use Minnen's season win-rate as a baseline estimate of true win probability (32.26%). At that probability the fair decimal price is ~3.10, so the current favorite price of 1.219 offers a large negative expected value. Given the mismatch and lack of corroborating evidence that Minnen should be an 80%+ chance here, we decline to recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Provided season record for Minnen is 10-21 (32.3% win rate) in the research
- • Market heavily favors Minnen (1.219 -> implied ~82.0%), which is far above her recorded win rate
- • No opponent data in the research to justify the market's heavy favoring