Greet Minnen vs Tessah Andrianjafitrimo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see no positive EV: the market overprices Minnen severely versus our 55% estimate, so we recommend no bet at the quoted 1.173.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability ~85% (1/1.173) vs our 55% estimate
- • Required fair odds for Minnen would be ~1.818; current price is much shorter
Pros
- + We adopt a conservative, research-driven estimate given near-identical records
- + Clear discrepancy between market odds and our probability allows a defensible no-bet decision
Cons
- - Research data is limited and messy; hidden factors (injuries, recent practice, H2H) could change the true edge
- - If we underestimated a real Minnen advantage, the market favorite could still be the correct side despite poor EV
Details
We find no value at the current market prices. The book market is pricing Greet Minnen at 1.173 (implied ~85.3%) while Tessah Andrianjafitrimo is 4.48 (implied ~22.3%). The provided player profiles show nearly identical career records and recent poor form (both ~10-21 / 10-22 and recent losses), with no H2H or surface advantage data supplied. Given that parity in the research suggests only a small home edge at best, we estimate Minnen's true win probability at 55% (0.55). At that probability the fair decimal odds would be ~1.818 — far above the current 1.173 — so backing the market favorite yields a large negative expected value. The underdog price (4.48) looks attractive on face value, but our modeled probability for the underdog (45%) still produces negative EV at the market price. Therefore we recommend no bet because neither side offers positive EV at available prices.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for Minnen (~85%) is far above our estimate
- • Both players show nearly identical recent records and poor form in the provided research
- • No H2H, injury, or surface advantage data in the research to justify the market gap