Highlights

• • Home implied probability 93.5% vs our ~88% estimate
• • Underdog would need >13.33% true win chance to be +EV at 7.5; we estimate lower

Pros

• + Barrere's experience and higher-level match history make him the stronger pick on paper
• + Jade's small sample size increases variance, so a speculative play could hit rarely

Cons

• - Market price for Barrere is too short to offer positive ROI by our estimate
• - Jade's form and level suggest his true upset probability is below the break-even threshold at current odds

Details

We estimate Gregoire Barrere is the clear favorite due to greater match experience and higher-level results compared with Daniel Jade, but the market price (1.07) implies ~93.5% while our assessed win probability for Barrere is lower at ~88%. That gap means the bookmaker is overconfident versus our model and the value is not present on the favorite. Conversely, the underdog's price (7.5) would require a true upset chance of >13.33% to be +EV; while Jade's limited results and lower-level record create variance, we judge his real upset probability to be smaller than needed to justify backing him at current prices. Given these estimates, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Experience and level gap: Barrere has far more high-level match exposure than Jade
• • Both players show shaky recent form, but Barrere's higher baseline quality limits upset probability
• • Market strongly favors the home player (very short price), leaving little or no margin for value