Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability ~26.2%; we estimate 30.0%
• • Positive EV at current price: +0.065 (6.5% ROI per unit staked)

Pros

• + Current price (3.55) exceeds the min required decimal odds (3.333) for our probability estimate
• + Conservative estimate leaves room for variance in tennis matches — favors occasional upsets

Cons

• - Recommendation is based on conservative assumptions due to lack of surface/form/injury data
• - EV is modest; small estimation errors could remove the value (sensitivity around ~29.9%)

Details

We have no external data beyond the posted prices, so we apply conservative, explicit assumptions. The market decimal prices (Home 1.26, Away 3.55) imply a raw probability of 79.4% for the home and 28.2% for the away; after removing the bookmaker overround and normalizing those figures the market-implied probabilities are about 73.8% (home) and 26.2% (away). Given the lack of specific surface, form, injury or H2H data, we conservatively estimate the away player’s true win probability at 30.0% (slightly higher than the market-implied 26.2%), reflecting the realistic chance an underdog can win a single-match tennis encounter and accounting for uncertainty. At that probability the away price of 3.55 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 3.55 - 1 = +0.065). We therefore recommend backing the away player at the current market price because our estimated true probability exceeds the market-implied probability enough to produce a positive EV. If additional information (injury, surface advantage, recent form) becomes available and reduces the away win estimate below ~29.9%, the value disappears.

Key factors

• • No external match-specific data available — we use conservative default assumptions
• • Market-implied normalized probability for the away is ~26.2%, we estimate 30.0%
• • Tennis single-match variance often allows underdogs to exceed market-implied chances