Highlights

• • Lomakin's raw career win rate is ~32% but recent results are weaker
• • Current market price (3.36) is slightly too short relative to our probability estimate

Pros

• + If true probability were closer to career average (~32%), current odds would approach value
• + Lomakin has experience on hard courts, which reduces some surface risk

Cons

• - Recent form is poor and sample size of success is limited
• - Opponent is strongly favored by the market, indicating likely quality gap

Details

The market prices Digvijay Pratap Singh as a heavy favourite (away 1.272) while Grigoriy Lomakin is offered at 3.36. Lomakin's career record in the provided data is 15-32 (≈31.9% career win rate) with most recent results showing more losses than wins on hard courts. We adjust that baseline downward for recent form and likely stronger opposition, arriving at an estimated true win probability for Lomakin of 28.0%. The market-implied probability at 3.36 is about 29.8%, slightly higher than our estimate, which produces a negative expected value at the current price (EV = 0.28 * 3.36 - 1 = -0.059). Because the stake would show negative EV at widely available odds, we do not recommend backing Lomakin or the away player at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Lomakin career win rate 15-32 (≈31.9%)
• • Recent form shows more losses than wins on hard courts
• • Market strongly favors the away player (implied favorite probability ~78.7%)