Highlights

• • Market implies away ~59.2%, we estimate ~57.0%
• • Estimated EV at current away price is negative (~-3.7% ROI)

Pros

• + We use a conservative probability given limited information to avoid overconfident calls
• + Clear numeric comparison between implied market odds and our estimated true probability

Cons

• - Absence of any match-specific research increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - ITF-level matches can be volatile and more sensitive to short-term factors not available here

Details

We compared market odds to a conservative assessment of win probability. Market decimals imply ~59.2% for the away (1.69) and ~46.3% for the home (2.16) after converting to probabilities; the market contains ~5.5% vig. With no external form, H2H, surface, or injury information available, we take a conservative edge estimate that the away player wins ~57.0% of the time. At that estimated true probability the away’s fair decimal price would be ~1.754, which is higher than the available 1.69, producing a small negative expectation. Using the quoted away price (1.69) gives EV = 0.57*1.69 - 1 = -0.037, so we do not recommend betting either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • No match-specific research available (form, surface, injuries unknown)
• • Market-implied probability favours the away player (1.69 -> ~59.2%)
• • Conservative estimated true probability (57%) is below market-implied level, producing negative EV