Highlights

• • Market implies 38.5% for Justo; we estimate ~40% true chance
• • Fair odds at our estimate are 2.50; available price 2.60 yields positive EV

Pros

• + Slightly better value vs market after accounting for recent form swing
• + Both players experienced on clay, reducing matchup-specific surface risk

Cons

• - Midon has a stronger overall career win-rate and is favored by the market
• - Edge is small (EV ≈ +4%); variance in a single match can erase the edge

Details

We compared the market-implied probabilities (Away/Lautaro Midon implied ≈67.7%, Home/Guido Ivan Justo implied ≈38.5%) to fundamentals from the provided profiles. Midon has the superior career win-rate (123-70 → ~63.7% overall) while Justo has a solid record (153-114 → ~57.3%). Both players have clay experience and the match is an ITF clay event, so surface does not strongly favor one over the other based on the provided data. Recent form in the supplied records shows Midon with two documented losses in August, while Justo's most recent documented outings in late July were split (one loss, one win). Given similar surface profiles but a slight recent form dip for Midon, we estimate Justo's true win probability higher than the market-implied 38.5% — around 40.0%. At that probability the fair price is 2.50 decimal; the available home price of 2.60 offers positive expected value. We therefore recommend the home side only because EV > 0 at the current home price.

Key factors

• • Career win-rate: Midon stronger (approx. 63.7%) vs Justo (approx. 57.3%)
• • Both have clay experience — surface neutral based on provided profiles
• • Recent form: Midon shows recent losses in August while Justo's latest documented results are mixed