Highlights

• • Market implies 56.34% for Dalmasso; we estimate 57.5%
• • Positive but small EV (≈ +0.0206) at current home price 1.775

Pros

• + Dalmasso’s career win rate is notably higher in the provided data
• + Both players are comfortable on clay, reducing a surface disadvantage

Cons

• - Recent form for both players shown in the research is mixed and somewhat inconsistent
• - Edge is small — sensitive to late-breaking information (injury, conditions, head-to-head) not present in the provided data

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (Home 1.775 => 56.34%) to our assessment of Guillaume Dalmasso’s win probability. Dalmasso holds a superior career win rate (38-40 ≈ 48.7%) versus Kristjan Tamm’s (98-147 ≈ 40.0%) in the provided data and both have experience on clay among other surfaces, so we assign a small edge to Dalmasso. The market price (1.775) slightly underestimates that edge; using a conservative true probability of 57.5% produces a positive expected value at the current decimal price. The edge is small and sensitive to form/injury uncertainty, so this is a cautious value play rather than a large-confidence pick.

Key factors

• • Dalmasso’s higher career win percentage in the provided records
• • Both players have experience on clay, reducing surface-based variance
• • Market-implied probability (56.34%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (57.5%)