Guillaume Dalmasso vs Kristjan Tamm
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive EV on Guillaume Dalmasso at 1.77 — the market slightly underestimates his chances relative to our 58% model — but the edge is marginal and uncertainty is elevated.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability (56.5%) vs our estimate (58.0%) yields ~2.7% ROI
- • No clear injury or lineup concerns in the provided data
Pros
- + Clearer superior recent career record and experience
- + Current odds are above our computed breakeven decimal (1.724)
Cons
- - Small edge only — narrow margin for error
- - No H2H data and some anomalous match stats reduce confidence
Details
We estimate Guillaume Dalmasso is the slight favorite based on a stronger overall record (28-26 vs 10-19) and more match activity on clay/harder surfaces compared with Kristjan Tamm. The market prices the home win at 1.77 (implied probability ~56.5%); we estimate Dalmasso's true win probability at about 58.0%, producing a small positive edge. The edge is limited by noisy recent match-level stats, small sample sizes, and no available direct H2H, but the current price (1.77) exceeds our breakeven decimal (1.724) so this represents value under our model.
Key factors
- • Dalmasso's better career win-rate and greater match volume (28-26 vs 10-19)
- • Market-implied probability for home (≈56.5%) is slightly below our 58% estimate
- • Data quality issues and limited H2H increase uncertainty (recent serve stats look anomalous)