Guillaume Dalmasso vs Lucca Helguera Casado
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the favorite is priced too short relative to our 72% win estimate, and the underdog's price does not offer enough upside to justify a bet.
Highlights
- • Our estimated home win probability: 72%
- • Book market implies ~78.1% at 1.28, which removes value
Pros
- + Clear rationale based on match volume and clay experience favoring Dalmasso
- + Conservative stance avoids negative-EV wagering
Cons
- - Research sample for both players is limited and recent-match detail is sparse
- - If market shifts (longer favorite), a value opportunity could appear quickly
Details
We estimate Guillaume Dalmasso is the clear favorite on clay given his larger sample size (54 matches) and a winning record versus Lucca Helguera Casado's smaller sample and sub .500 record. Accounting for clay experience, match volume, and recent results, we estimate Dalmasso's true win probability at 72%. The market price of 1.28 implies a win probability of ~78.1%, which is higher than our estimate and therefore offers negative expected value on the favorite. The away price (3.28, implied ~30.5%) would require us to believe Helguera Casado's upset probability is >30.5% to be +EV; the research does not support that level of upside. Given current widely-available prices, neither side offers positive EV, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Surface: both have clay exposure but Dalmasso has larger overall match volume
- • Form/sample size: Dalmasso 54 matches (28-26) vs Helguera Casado 18 matches (7-11) — more reliable baseline for Dalmasso
- • Market price vs our model: market implies 78.1% for home; our estimate 72% → negative EV at 1.28