Highlights

• • Dalmasso favored strongly by market (implied ~80.1%)
• • Our fair odds for Dalmasso are ~1.282; market is shorter -> negative EV

Pros

• + Much stronger career record and far larger match sample
• + Both players will play on clay where Dalmasso's experience appears adequate

Cons

• - Market is already pricing a substantial favorite; available price is slightly shorter than fair
• - Limited match-level detail (injury, H2H) increases uncertainty despite clear record gap

Details

We compare the market price (Guillaume Dalmasso 1.248) to our assessment of his true win probability. Dalmasso's career sample is far larger (54 matches, 28-26) versus Garcia Paez (15 matches, 2-13) and Garcia's win rate is extremely low, especially overall. On clay both have experience, but the raw records favor Dalmasso substantially. We estimate Dalmasso's true chance around 78%; at that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.282. The available market price of 1.248 implies ~80.1% and is slightly shorter than our fair value, producing a small negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.027 per unit). Given the slim negative EV and limited additional information (no H2H, limited injury detail, some recent losses for Dalmasso but still materially better career profile), we do not recommend taking the favorite at the current price because it lacks value.

Key factors

• • Dalmasso has a much larger sample and markedly better career win rate (28-26 vs 2-13)
• • Both players have clay experience, but Garcia Paez's 2-13 record indicates low win expectancy
• • Market price (1.248) is slightly shorter than our fair odds (~1.282), yielding negative EV