Highlights

• • Market-implied win probability ~90% vs our estimate ~72%
• • Current odds would need to be >= 1.389 to offer non-negative EV by our model

Pros

• + Dalmasso is the clear market favorite and likely still the stronger name based on reputation
• + Home/team familiarity in ITF events may give a baseline advantage

Cons

• - Recent form shows multiple losses, reducing confidence in a >90% win chance
• - Lack of any data on the opponent prevents identifying a reliable edge

Details

The market heavily favors Guillaume Dalmasso at decimal 1.108 (implied ~90.1%). From the provided profile, Dalmasso has a near-even career record (38-40) and recent results show multiple losses in his last matches, indicating form deterioration. We do not have any performance data for Elijah Sanogo in the research, which increases uncertainty. Given Dalmasso's visible vulnerabilities in recent matches, we estimate his true win probability substantially below the market-implied 90.1%—we estimate ~72%. At that true probability, the current price for Dalmasso (1.108) produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.72*1.108 - 1 ≈ -0.202). Therefore there is no value to back the favorite at available prices. If better prices (>= 1.389) appeared for Dalmasso, the bet would break even by our estimate.

Key factors

• • Market implies an extremely high probability (~90%) for Dalmasso that we consider overstated
• • Dalmasso career record is near 50% (38-40) and recent results show multiple recent losses
• • No research data available on Elijah Sanogo, increasing uncertainty and limiting confidence in market edges