Guillaume Dalmasso vs Leyton Rivera
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value — the book price for Dalmasso (1.307) overstates his likelihood to win relative to our 67% estimate, producing a negative EV.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability: 76.5% (1.307) vs our estimate 67%
- • EV at current favorite price is roughly -12.4% per unit
Pros
- + Dalmasso is the stronger player on paper with better win-loss record
- + Clay-court experience for both; Dalmasso looks more consistent
Cons
- - Bookmaker price is too short for Dalmasso to offer value
- - Rivera's raw record is poor, but price doesn't compensate enough to back an upset
Details
We estimate Guillaume Dalmasso is the clear favorite but we do not see value at the current prices. Dalmasso's career win-rate (27-26) and recent clay exposure give him a meaningful edge vs Leyton Rivera (10-23), so we estimate Dalmasso's true win probability at about 67%. The market price of 1.307 implies ~76.5% probability; at that price the expected return is negative (EV = 0.67 * 1.307 - 1 = -0.124). The away price (3.22) implies ~31.0% and would require Rivera to be ~31.0%+ likely to be profitable; our assessment of Rivera (~33% career average adjusted down for form and record) is below that threshold when considering surface and form, so neither side offers positive expected value. Therefore we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Dalmasso has a superior overall record (27-26) vs Rivera (10-23) in the provided data
- • Match surface clay; both have clay experience but Dalmasso appears more consistent
- • Current market strongly favors home: 1.307 implies ~76.5% — above our estimated true probability