Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for the away player (77%) materially exceeds our estimate (62%)
• • Identical win-loss records and similar surface histories provide no clear edge to justify the short price

Pros

• + Clear, conservative valuation comparing identical available player data
• + Avoids backing a heavily priced favorite lacking supporting performance differential

Cons

• - Limited data depth in the provided research (no H2H, no detailed match metrics beyond recent losses)
• - If unseen factors exist (recent training, fitness, or draw effects) market price could be justified

Details

We see the market strongly favors the away player Darja Semenistaja at decimal 1.30 (implied ~77%). However, the available profiles show both players with nearly identical records (10-21) across similar surfaces (hard and clay) and matching recent results, providing no clear performance edge for Semenistaja. Given the lack of distinguishing form, surface or injury information and the sizable bookmaker margin in the prices, we estimate Semenistaja's true win probability at ~62%, substantially below the market-implied ~77%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.613, so the current 1.30 quote offers negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend backing either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records (10-21) and similar surface exposure (hard and clay), so no clear quality gap is visible
• • Market implies ~77% for the away favorite, which appears overstated relative to observable form and head-to-head data absence
• • No injury or lineup information favoring either player; recent results for both are mixed and include several losses