Highlights

• • Home price 3.45 implies ~29% market probability vs our 36% estimate
• • Positive EV of ~0.242 units per 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Clear mispricing versus the symmetric data in the research
• + Current odds (3.45) are comfortably above our break-even odds (2.778)

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks head-to-head, seeding, or surface-specific performance detail
• - Small sample and similar poor recent form for both players increases variance

Details

Both players' available profiles show effectively identical career records (10-21) and recent form with no clear advantage for the away player. The market is pricing the away player at 1.30 (implied win probability ~77%), which is inconsistent with the symmetrical data we have. We estimate Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales has a substantially higher chance than the market implies (we estimate ~36%). At the current home price of 3.45 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.36 * 3.45 - 1 = 0.242). Given the lack of any listed injuries, surface or head-to-head edge in the research and similar recent results, the favorite pricing looks overstated and the home price offers value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided data
• • Market implies ~77% for the away player, which is inconsistent with available performance data
• • No injuries, surface advantage or H2H edge documented to justify heavy favorite