Highlights

• • Current favorite price (1.024) implies an unrealistic 97.7% win chance
• • Our conservative true probability estimate for Taberner is ~78%, producing negative EV at market price

Pros

• + Taberner is the safer on-court pick based on experience and clay form
• + The market is heavily skewed toward the favorite, reflecting strong expectation of his win

Cons

• - Current odds leave zero edge — EV is materially negative at posted prices
• - Den Ouden’s smaller-sample high win rate and recent event play mean an upset is plausible, increasing uncertainty

Details

We see an extremely short market price on Carlos Taberner (1.024 decimal, implied ~97.7%) that leaves no edge. Comparing form and profiles: Taberner is the more experienced player with a long match history and solid results on clay, while Guy Den Ouden shows a strong win rate in a smaller sample and recent activity at this Seville event. We estimate Taberner to be a clear favorite but not anywhere near a 97% chance. Using a conservative, evidence-based estimate (see estimated_true_probability) produces a negative expected value at the current price. To have positive EV on Taberner you would need about 1.282 or longer, so the posted 1.024 contains no value. Likewise, the long price on Den Ouden (35.87) overstates his upset probability — the market is simply pricing Taberner as nearly certain and that is not supported by the comparative records and recent results.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Taberner (≈97.7%) is implausibly high
• • Taberner has greater experience and consistent clay results but not near certainty
• • Den Ouden has a strong win rate in fewer matches and recent Seville activity