Highlights

• • Market implies ~80.6% for Rocchetti at 1.24
• • Research shows Rocchetti's career win rate ~32% with recent losses

Pros

• + We err on the side of caution given sparse data on the opponent
• + Clear quantitative mismatch between market odds and documented career form

Cons

• - Limited research data overall (no profile for the home player) increases uncertainty
• - If undisclosed contextual factors exist (injury to opponent, home advantage), our estimate could be too low

Details

We find no value on the heavy favorite given the available research. The market price for Sofia Rocchetti (away) is 1.24, which implies a win probability of ~80.6%. However, Rocchetti's documented career record in the research is 10-21 (about 32% overall) with several recent losses and mixed results on clay/hard. With no profile or form detail available for Gwendolyn Fedel in the provided sources, we conservatively estimate Rocchetti's true win probability at 35% (0.35). This is substantially below the market-implied 80.6%, meaning the current 1.24 price offers negative expected value. We therefore recommend no bet at these odds and identify that a fair/value price to back Rocchetti would be roughly 2.857 or higher.

Key factors

• • Sofia Rocchetti's career record in research is 10-21 (~32% wins)
• • Recent match results in research show multiple losses and poor form
• • Market-implied probability (1.24 => ~80.6%) is far higher than our estimated true probability
• • No available profile or form data for Gwendolyn Fedel in the provided research increases uncertainty