H. Arakawa/A. Miyamoto vs P. Lopez/S. Rokusek
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market price for the heavy favorite (1.16) is slightly shorter than our conservative probability estimate, giving a small negative EV; we recommend no bet at current prices.
Highlights
- • Market-implied win chance 86.21% vs our conservative estimate 85.0%
- • Break-even decimal needed is ~1.176; current 1.16 is too short
Pros
- + Home side is a clear market favorite, indicating perceived strength
- + A small edge would exist if more favorable odds (>=1.176) were offered
Cons
- - No external match information to justify exceeding the market probability
- - Even small estimation errors make this a marginal decision; current odds yield negative EV
Details
We compare the market price (home 1.16) to a conservative estimated true win probability. The market-implied probability for the home side at 1.16 is ~86.21%. Given no additional match-specific intel (surface, form, injuries, or H2H) and adopting a conservative stance, we estimate the true probability of the home pair winning at 85.0%. That is below the break-even probability needed to justify a bet at 1.16 (which is 86.207%). Calculations: our p = 0.85; EV at offered odds = 0.85 * 1.16 - 1 = -0.014 (negative). Because EV is negative at the current market price, we do not recommend taking the favorite. If you can obtain minimum decimal odds >= 1.176 (1/0.85), the bet would break even or become positive by our estimate.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.16) implies 86.21% chance
- • No independent match intelligence available (surface, form, injuries, H2H)
- • We apply a conservative true probability (85%) below the market implied number