H. Jebens/A. Olivetti vs A. Reymond/L. Sanchez

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 78.1% vs our estimate 72% — market is too short
• • Required odds for value on the favorite are >= 1.389 (current 1.28)

Pros

• + Home favorite likely the stronger side, which is why the market price is short
• + Clear threshold provided (1.389) — useful if shopping markets or waiting for price drift

Cons

• - No external data on surface, injuries, or form to justify lifting our probability estimate
• - Short prices offer little margin for error; small estimation mistakes flip EV negative

Details

We compared the market prices (home 1.28 => implied 78.1%) to a conservative estimated true win probability of 72% for H. Jebens/A. Olivetti. With no additional publicly-available data on surface, injuries, recent form or head-to-head, we are intentionally conservative and assume a margin of uncertainty. At our estimate the home side's expected value at 1.28 is negative (EV = 0.72 * 1.28 - 1 = -0.0784), so the current market price does not offer value. The away side at 3.40 (implied 29.4%) is correspondingly underpriced relative to our residual probability (28%) and also shows negative EV. To be profitable on the home side given our probability estimate, we would require higher decimal odds (>= 1.389). Because we cannot justify a higher true probability with the available information, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (78.1%) exceeds our conservative true probability estimate (72%)
• • No match-specific intelligence on surface, injuries, recent form or H2H available — increases uncertainty
• • Doubles matches can be more volatile; without a clear informational edge we avoid betting favorites at short prices