H. Jebens/A. Olivetti vs C. Chidekh/H. Maginley
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on the home side (EV ~4.4%) based on a conservative 90% win probability against the 1.16 market price; avoid the underdog.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability: 86.2%; our estimate: 90%
- • Positive expected value of ~4.4% at current odds
Pros
- + Clear pricing gap in favor of the home pair
- + Conservative probability estimate still produces positive EV
Cons
- - Limited match-specific information increases model uncertainty
- - Small edge — vulnerable to variance and late information (injury/withdrawal)
Details
We have no external match-specific data, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market prices H. Jebens/A. Olivetti at 1.16 (implied 86.2%). Given the heavy favorite status in doubles and absent contradictory information (injury or withdrawal), we conservatively estimate their true win probability at 90%. That gives a margin vs market of ~3.8 percentage points and a positive expected value: EV = 0.90 * 1.16 - 1 = 0.044 (4.4% ROI). The away price (4.9) would require a >20.4% true win probability to be profitable, which we judge unlikely. Therefore we recommend a bet on the home side at the current market price.
Key factors
- • Market implies 86.2% for the home side; our conservative estimate is 90%
- • No contrary injury/form data available, so we avoid overstating uncertainty
- • Underdog would need >20.4% chance to be value at 4.9, which is unlikely