H. Jebens/A. Olivetti vs P. Niklas-Salminen/M. Vocel

Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability: ~63.7% (1.57)
• • Our conservative estimate: 62.0% → required fair odds 1.613 > available 1.57

Pros

• + Home side is correctly favored by the market
• + Price is close to our estimate, indicating a generally efficient market

Cons

• - Available home odds are slightly too short to offer positive EV
• - No external data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) to justify an edge

Details

We compared the market prices to a conservative, data-limited estimate. The market-implied probability for the home side at 1.57 is ~63.7%. Given no external form/injury/H2H data and the higher variance of doubles, we conservatively estimate the true home win probability at 62.0% (0.62). At that probability the minimum fair decimal odds are ~1.613, which is higher than the available home price of 1.57, producing a small negative edge. The away price (2.28) implies ~43.9% and would require our true away probability to be >=43.9% to be +EV; we judge the away probability materially lower than that. Because neither side shows positive expected value at available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.57) ~63.7%
• • Conservative true probability estimate for home set at 62.0% due to lack of form/H2H/injury data
• • Required fair odds (1.613) exceed available home odds (1.57) — no value
• • Doubles matches have higher variance and limited publicly-available performance signals