Highlights

• • Market implies ~99% for home; we conservatively estimate 95%
• • EV at current home price is negative (~-4.05% ROI)

Pros

• + Home is clearly the favorite and likely to win in most scenarios
• + Low upside for a bookmaker at 1.01 reflects market consensus

Cons

• - Current price (1.01) offers no value relative to a conservative true probability
• - Lack of match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty

Details

The market price (home 1.01) implies an extremely high win probability (~99.0%) for H. Kinoshita/E. Sema. With no additional scouting data, surface or injury information, and acknowledging the inherent variance in doubles and lower-level events, we apply a conservative true-win estimate of 95% for the home pair. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.053, meaning the offered 1.01 is overpriced by the bookmaker and offers negative expected value. Calculation: implied market p_home = 1/1.01 = 0.9901; our p_estimate = 0.95; EV_at_market = 0.95 * 1.01 - 1 = -0.0405 (≈ -4.05% ROI). Therefore we do not recommend a bet because current prices do not offer positive EV.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (≈99.0%) is unrealistically high given normal match variance
• • No additional research available on surface, form, injuries or H2H — we use a conservative estimate
• • Doubles matches and smaller events carry upset potential; large favorites rarely warrant near-certain prices