Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability: 94.5%
• • Min fair decimal odds: 1.058 vs offered 1.06 — tiny value

Pros

• + Market offers a decimal price barely above our conservative fair odds
• + Low volatility expectation given heavy favoritism (if our assumptions hold)

Cons

• - Edge is minimal (EV ≈ 0.17%) and sensitive to small probability estimation errors
• - No independent match data available to validate assumptions

Details

We have no external match data, injuries or H2H to adjust probabilities, so we adopt a conservative model-based approach. The market prices the away side at 1.06 (implied ~94.34%). After accounting for bookmaker margin and the absence of contradictory information, we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 94.5% (0.945). At that probability the fair decimal threshold is ~1.058 and the available price of 1.06 therefore offers a very small positive edge. Given the lack of independent evidence, we keep the margin of error tight and only recommend the away side because expected value at the quoted price is marginally positive.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.06) is extremely high for the away team
• • No independent research returned; we apply a conservative estimate close to the market
• • Small edge arises because our conservative true probability slightly exceeds the implied probability