Highlights

• • Away implied probability: 81.3% (1.23)
• • Home implied probability: 26.0% (3.85)
• • Our conservative home estimate: 20% → negative EV at available odds

Pros

• + Large payout on home upset if it occurs
• + Market pricing is clear and stable (heavy favorite)

Cons

• - No evidence to justify a higher true probability for the underdog
• - Both sides offer negative or negligible EV under conservative estimates

Details

We have no external match-specific data (form, H2H, injuries, surface stats) and must use conservative assumptions. Market prices imply the away pair is a heavy favorite: implied probability for the away line (1.23) is 81.3% and for the home line (3.85) is 26.0%. Given the lack of supporting information to justify such a large discrepancy, we conservatively estimate the home pair's true win probability at 20.0% (away 80.0%). At the home odds of 3.85 the expected value is negative: EV = 0.20 * 3.85 - 1 = -0.23 (loss of 0.23 units per 1-unit stake). To be profitable on the home side we would need decimal odds of at least 5.000, which is materially above the quoted 3.85. The away side also offers no value under our estimate: EV_away = 0.80 * 1.23 - 1 = -0.016 (small negative). Because neither side shows a positive expected value at current market prices and given high uncertainty from missing information, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data available (form, H2H, injuries, surface)
• • Market implies heavy away favorite (1.23 → 81.3%)
• • Conservative upset estimate (home 20%) yields no value at 3.85