H. Giavara/R. McAdoo vs T. Rakotomanga Rajaonah/L. Tran
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With limited information and a conservative true-win estimate (Home 55%), neither side offers positive expected value at the posted odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market favours the home pair (1.66) but implied probability appears slightly overstated versus our conservative estimate
- • Both sides currently lack positive EV under conservative probability estimates
Pros
- + Home is the market favorite, which aligns with a modest edge assumption
- + Odds are within a normal range for doubles — low disaster risk from extremely long shots
Cons
- - Insufficient data on form, surface and injuries increases uncertainty
- - Current prices do not provide a positive expected value under conservative probability estimates
Details
We compared the market prices (Home 1.66, Away 2.12) to a conservative, data-sparse estimate. With no recent form, surface or injury information available, we assume a cautious true win probability for the home pair of 55% (less than the market-implied ~60.2%). At that estimate the home line (1.66) yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.55 * 1.66 - 1 = -0.087). Checking the away side, the market-implied probability (47.2%) is similarly close to our conservative away estimate (~45%), and the current away price (2.12) also fails to offer positive EV. Given the information gap and the bookmakers' margin, neither side shows value at the quoted prices, so we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • No recent match, injury, surface or head-to-head data available — we use conservative estimates
- • Market-implied probabilities: Home ~60.2% (1/1.66), Away ~47.2% (1/2.12) showing a bookmaker margin
- • Doubles matches have higher variance; without clear edges we avoid taking marginal lines